Poll: The Georgia Runoffs Are A Dead Heat
Both races for Senate in Georgia are incredibly close.
According to our latest polling results in Georgia, incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue is tied in his re-election effort against Democrat Jon Ossoff.
Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, appointed to her seat by Governor Brian Kemp after Senator Johnny Isakson resigned, is narrowly trailing Democrat Reverend Raphael Warnock for the other Senate seat in Georgia.
With such tight margins, both races are too close to call, and it could be weeks before we have an official winner.
Based on some of our modeling, there's a genuine possibility of a split verdict with Perdue and Warnock pulling out narrow wins.
| U.S. Senate (1) | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Perdue | 44% | 57% | 50% |
| Jon Ossoff | 56% | 42% | 50% |
| Other/Undecided | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| U.S. Senate (2) | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Loeffler | 43% | 56% | 49% |
| Raphael Warnock | 56% | 43% | 51% |
| Other/Undecided | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Since November, we have been working overtime to test every element of our polling design, including our samples, questions, weights, verification, and validation of poll respondents, etc.
Part of our effort with this poll is to test some changes and identify potential ways the industry can improve future polling, including techniques to improve our samples.
We are members of ESOMAR, a global not-for-profit organization that promotes the value of market, opinion and social research, and data analytics. We only work with sample providers who have agreed to the organization's online sample quality guidelines, including research participant validation and survey fraud prevention.
More analysis will be posted to our website later this week detailing what we have learned from this effort and how it impacts our industry and our polling efforts.
A link to the Crosstabs is posted below.
METHODOLOGY
The PollSmart MR online poll was conducted by Targoz Market Research, an independent research company.
Interviews were conducted from December 30-January 3, 2021, among a sample of 1,342 registered and self-identified likely voters. A subsample of 713 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 3.67 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Results were weighted based on party affiliation, geography, demographics (gender, age, education, ethnicity, etc.), time of registration, and other behavioral measures to ensure results mirror online and offline voters.
More information about the PollSmartMR polls can be obtained by visiting www.pollsmartmr.com or www.targoz.com.
Results are of likely voters unless otherwise noted. Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Similarly, percentages in "total" columns may be one point more or less than the sum of their parts due to rounding.