Poll: California Gov. Gavin Newsom Faces More Of An Uphill Battle In Recall Election Than Initially Expected
Californians who say they have already voted or expect to vote in the September recall election are almost evenly divided over removing Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Our poll found that 51% oppose removing Newsom from office while 41% support recalling the Democratic governor, with 9% indicating they are undecided on how they will vote.
| Recall | Likely Voters |
|---|---|
| Keep | 50.5% |
| Remove | 40.9% |
| Undecided | 8.5% |
More troublesome for Newsom, less than half of likely voters (47%) have a favorable view of the governor. Typically, favorables below 50% indicate significant trouble at the ballot box for an incumbent.
| Favorable | Unfavorable | |
|---|---|---|
| Governor Gavin Newsom | 47% | 43% |
| President Joe Biden | 56% | 36% |
| Vice President Kamala Harris | 52% | 38% |
| Lt. Governor Elenia Kounalakis | 21% | 13% |
When asked to pick their first choice among the candidates hoping to take the helm as California's next governor, 13% prefer Kevin Paffrath (D), also known as Meet Kevin, an American YouTuber, investor, and real estate broker from Ventura, California.
Another 13% prefer San Diego developer John Cox, 66, who took on Newsom in the 2018 gubernatorial election and lost by more than 20 points.
Conservative talk-show host Larry Elder was the choice of 12% of likely voters.
| Kevin Paffrath (D) | 13% |
|---|---|
| John Cox (R) | 13% |
| Larry Elder (R) | 12% |
| Kevin Faulconer (R) | 7% |
| Caitlyn Jenner (R) | 3% |
| Kevin Kiley (R) | 3% |
Among likely voters who support recall, nearly half (48%) believe Newsom should be removed due to his handling of COVID-19 restrictions, and roughly one in three believe spending and his attendance at a party during lockdown justify removal from office.
| Voters Who Support Recall | |
|---|---|
| His handling of COVID-19 restrictions | 48% |
| Spending decisions | 34% |
| Attending a party during lockdown | 32% |
| Homelessness | 31% |
| Mishandling of unemployment dollars | 29% |
According to likely voters, regardless of party affiliation, the number one issue facing California is COVID-19. Homelessness, the drought, and the cost of housing were the next three top issues facing the state.
| Total | Democrat | Republican | Independents/ Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 | 28% | 31% | 20% | 32% |
| Homelessness | 15% | 15% | 18% | 11% |
| Drought | 11% | 9% | 12% | 13% |
| Housing costs | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% |
| Healthcare | 8% | 6% | 8% | 12% |
While most voters rate California's quality of life as excellent or good, almost half of likely voters (45%) say they're giving serious or some consideration to moving out of the state.
This includes more than one in four (27%) who say they're giving serious consideration to leaving the state. Nearly six in ten Republican voters (58%) and half (49%) of Independents are considering moving out of state.
| Total | Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giving serious or some consideration to moving out of California | 45% | 35% | 58% | 49% |
| Yes, giving serious consideration | 27% | 21% | 31% | 33% |
| Yes, giving some consideration | 18% | 14% | 27% | 16% |
| Rates the quality of life in California as excellent or good | 58% | 70% | 53% | 42% |
Regardless of party, most voters across party affiliation express concern about catching COVID-19. Just 7% of voters say they're unwilling to get a vaccine, and 65% say they've already been vaccinated. This includes 70% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, and 66% of Independents or third-party voters.
| Total | Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very or somewhat concerned about catching one of the new variants of the COVID-19 virus | 79% | 90% | 74% | 65% |
| Already received a COVID-19 vaccine | 65% | 70% | 56% | 66% |
| Not willing to get a COVID-19 vaccine | 7% | 2% | 13% | 8% |
Likely voters were also asked if they supported or opposed several potential policies for the state. More than half strongly support stricter gun control laws. Most of the other issues we tested were strongly supported by roughly two in five likely voters.
Nearly half strongly supported increased funding to build economic opportunities in poor communities. Two in five strongly support increasing the number of police officers in high crime neighborhoods (42%) and generating more electricity using natural gas plants to avoid blackouts (40%).
| Strongly Support | Total | Democrat | Republican | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stricter gun control laws | 54% | 76% | 22% | 50% |
| Increasing funding to build economic opportunities in poor communities | 45% | 52% | 25% | 52% |
| Increasing the number of police officers in high crime neighborhoods | 42% | 36% | 59% | 36% |
| Generating more electricity using natural gas plants to avoid blackouts | 40% | 42% | 44% | 31% |
| Increasing funding for police departments | 38% | 24% | 58% | 41% |
We are members of ESOMAR, a global not-for-profit organization that promotes the value of market, opinion and social research, and data analytics. We only work with sample providers who have agreed to the organization's online sample quality guidelines, including research participant validation and survey fraud prevention.
A link to the Crosstabs is posted below.
METHODOLOGY
The PollSmart MR online poll was conducted by Targoz Market Research, an independent research company.
Interviews were conducted from August 23- 25, 2021, among a sample of 1,000 likely and self-identified likely voters. A subsample of 787 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Results were weighted based on party affiliation, geography, demographics (gender, age, education, ethnicity, etc.), and other behavioral measures to ensure results mirror online and offline voters.
More information about the PollSmartMR polls can be obtained by visiting www.pollsmartmr.com or www.targoz.com.
Results are of likely voters unless otherwise noted. Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Similarly, percentages in "total" columns may be one point more or less than the sum of their parts due to rounding.