McAuliffe Up 3 Percent Over Republican Glenn Youngkin In Virginia Governor's Race
Democrat Terry McAuliffe holds a narrow lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the Virginia gubernatorial race with only a day before the election.
Our poll shows McAuliffe leading Youngkin by four percentage points (50-46) among likely voters, with four percent supporting another candidate or undecided. When you include leaners, the lead narrows to three points.
| Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Final Ballot | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McAuliffe (D) | 57% | 47% | 50% | 50% |
| Glenn Youngkin (R) | 41% | 47% | 46% | 47% |
| Undecided/Other | 1% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
While several recently released polls show a dramatic turnaround in the race, our numbers show little has changed or moved since September when McAuliffe held a polling advantage over Youngkin, a former executive of global investment firm Carlyle Group.
The race is tighter than expected. Democrats enjoy a significant advantage in the state. Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020.
However, likely voters tend to believe the state is on the wrong track (45% to 42%), and more voters have a favorable view of Youngkin (47%) than McAuliffe (45%). So, anything could happen.
This year, we have tested multiple new methods to track voter attitudes, and this poll is part of that effort, including focusing on research participant validation and survey fraud prevention.
More analysis will be posted to our website later next week, detailing what we have learned from this effort and how it impacts our industry and our polling efforts.
A link to the Crosstabs is posted below.
METHODOLOGY
The PollSmart MR online poll was conducted by Targoz Market Research, an independent research company.
Interviews were conducted from October 26 -November 1, 2021, among a sample of 1,177 registered and self-identified likely voters. A subsample of 747 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 3.59 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Results were weighted based on party affiliation, geography, demographics (gender, age, education, ethnicity, etc.), and other behavioral measures to ensure results mirror online and offline voters.
More information about the PollSmartMR polls can be obtained by visiting www.pollsmartmr.com or www.targoz.com.
Results are of likely voters unless otherwise noted. Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Similarly, percentages in "total" columns may be one point more or less than the sum of their parts due to rounding.