Trump, Kelly Lead In Arizona
ARIZONA • LIKELY VOTERS • OCTOBER 15, 2020
The 2020 race for President appears to be a repeat of 2016 with a different cast of characters.
The Donald Trump-Mike Pence ticket is ahead of the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket by a 45-43% margin among likely voters in Arizona, which is somewhat similar to 2016 when Trump won the state by 4 points.
When you include undecided voters who say they’re leaning toward a particular candidate, Trump’s lead shrinks to a single point. While we expect a strong turnout among registered voters, we did model outcomes for a low turnout election, and Trump leads by one point in that scenario.
| 2020 Election | Likely Voters | Likely With Leaners | Low Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden (Democrat) | 43% | 45% | 45% |
| Donald Trump (Republican) | 45% | 46% | 46% |
| Other | 12% | 10% | 10% |
In the Senate race, Mark Kelly (Democrat) holds a substantial lead over incumbent Martha McSally (Republican). Kelly leads McSally by 9 points among likely voters, and the lead extends to 10% when you include leaners.
| Likely Voters | Likely With Leaners | Low Turnout | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kelly (Democrat) | 49% | 51% | 51% |
| Martha McSally (Republican) | 40% | 41% | 42% |
| Other | 11% | 8% | 7% |
While many other polls show a substantial Biden lead in the presidential race, we see an outcome similar to 2016 when Trump won the state by 4 points.
| 2016 Results | 2020 Poll | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | 45% | Biden | 43% | ||||
| Trump | 49% | +4% | Trump | 45% | +2% | ||
| Other | 6% | Other | 12% |
We believe many public polls are too narrowly defining who will be voting this year. Polls with tight or narrow likely voter screens or that rely on prior voter history to identify “likely voters” could be missing a block of voters (often older and male) who do not always show up on election day but plan to vote this year.
We asked voters when they registered to vote to get a sense of the ground game for each candidate. One in five likely voters say they registered to vote in 2020, which includes 24% of Biden’s voters, and over a third of this group (35%) are Hispanic or Latino.
Another 19% of likely voters say they registered between 2016 and 2019, and they make up one in five likely Trump voters. More than seven in ten (72%) of these 2016 to 2019 registrants are white, 65% are over 45, and more than half (55%) are male. In earlier national polling, we described this group as the “don’t vote, it only encourages the bastards” voting bloc, which has been a focus for the Trump outreach and explains why Trump’s support doesn’t translate to McSally in the Senate race.
| In what year did you register to vote in Arizona? | Likely Voters | Trump Voters | Biden Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| In 2020, this year | 20% | 13% | 24% |
| Between 2016 and 2019 | 19% | 20% | 19% |
| Before 2016 | 54% | 62% | 50% |
| Not sure | 7% | 4% | 7% |
Senate Race Analysis
Regardless of turnout, it appears Kelly is headed for a big win in November. Almost one in ten Kelly voters (9%) will crossover and vote for Trump this election. McSally’s weaknesses as a candidate are well documented. Thus far, she has tried to distance herself from Trump to appeal to suburban households. However, it doesn’t appear to be a winning strategy, and Arizona will probably have two Democrat Senators come 2021 thanks to a McSally loss.
In the poll, we also applied a set of metrics we typically use for product and service type studies to gauge each campaign's effectiveness. These metrics focus on loyalty or word of mouth support of the candidate, trust in the candidate, and the effectiveness of each campaign’s messaging, with +100 being at the top of the scale and -100 at the lowest part of the scale. While Kelly’s scores on these metrics are positive, they are somewhat modest. McSally’s problem in this campaign is her lack of word of mouth support. She just doesn’t connect with voters.
| Range (+100 to -100) | |
|---|---|
| Martha McSally Voter Loyalty/Word of Mouth Score | -18 |
| Martha McSally Voter Trust Score | -7 |
| Martha McSally Messaging Effectiveness Score | -9 |
| Martha McSally Composite Campaign Effectiveness Score | -11 |
| Mark Kelly Voter Loyalty/Word of Mouth Score | +1 |
Voters in Arizona list bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the U.S. as their number one issue in selecting a Senator, which is marginally ahead of improving education and dealing with the coronavirus.
| How important are the following issues in making your decision about who to vote for Senator this year? | Likely Voters | Kelly Voters | McSally Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the U.S. | 88% | 85% | 94% |
| Improving education | 87% | 94% | 81% |
| Dealing with coronavirus | 86% | 94% | 80% |
| Addressing crime, law, and order | 86% | 82% | 96% |
| Cutting unemployment and getting people back to work | 85% | 83% | 92% |
While McSally struggles in the Senate race, likely voters support Republican candidates for Congress by two points over Democratic candidates, further highlighting McSally’s issues with Republican/Trump voters.
| When you cast your vote for a member of Congress, which party will you vote for? | Likely Voters | Trump Voters | Biden Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican candidate | 44% | 91% | 2% |
| The Democratic candidate | 42% | 3% | 92% |
| Another candidate | 5% | 1% | 2% |
| Not sure | 9% | 5% | 4% |
Likely voters are evenly split (43%/43%) on holding hearings to fill the open Supreme Court vacancy.
| How should the Senate deal with the Supreme Court vacancy? | Likely Voters | Trump Voters | Biden Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold hearings and vote on whomever President Trump nominates | 43% | 85% | 6% |
| Not hold hearings until the next President selects a nominee | 43% | 6% | 81% |
| Not sure | 14% | 9% | 13% |
Half of likely voters, including 57% of Trump voters, say they have not dealt with lost wages or jobs, issues with telework, or worry about catching coronavirus from co-workers or customers.
| Which of these, if any, describes the impact the coronavirus is having on you? | Likely Voters | Trump Voters | Biden Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| You worry about catching coronavirus from co-workers or customers | 23% | 16% | 31% |
| Your workplace has moved to a telework or work from home situation | 15% | 15% | 17% |
| Your wages or salary have been cut | 13% | 13% | 11% |
| You could lose your job or have your wages or salary cut | 12% | 9% | 15% |
| You have lost your job | 11% | 10% | 13% |
Coming Up
It appears we could be headed toward another 2016 scenario in Arizona.
We plan to poll Michigan next, and we plan to post weighted real-time results on the website. Check www.pollsmartmr.com for updates in the next few days.
Methodology
The PollSmart MR online poll was conducted by Targoz Market Research, an independent research company, with sample provided by Prodege, a leading market research panel.
Interviews were conducted from September 23-October 2, 2020, among a sample of 1,201 registered voters. A subsample of 1,045 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 3.03 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
More information about the PollSmart MR polls can be obtained by visiting www.pollsmartmr.com or www.targoz.com.
Results are of likely voters unless otherwise noted. Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Similarly, percentages in “total” columns may be one point more or less than the sum of their parts due to rounding.