Harris Leads Trump by Slim 3% Margin as 2024 Election Mirrors 2016 Dynamics
Our latest national poll finds Democratic candidate Kamala Harris holding a narrow 3% lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump among likely voters. Harris’s three point edge (49% to Trump’s 46%) is reminiscent of the close 2016 contest rather than the wider margin in 2020, where Joe Biden led comfortably in polls leading up to his victory.
Harris currently leads by a significant 14-point margin among early voters, a trend that typically favors Democrats. However, Trump edges out Harris by 1% among those planning to vote on Election Day, aligning with Republicans’ stronger day-of turnout in previous cycles.
| Registered Voters | Voted/Likely Voter | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sample Size | 1,150 | 1,088 | |
| Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate | 49% | 49% | |
| Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate | 45% | 46% | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an Independent candidate | 1% | 1% | |
| Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate | 1% | 0.3% |
| Registered Voters | Voted/Likely Voter | |
|---|---|---|
| Sample Size | 830 | 769 |
| Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate | 46% | 46% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate | 46% | 47% |
| Robert F Kennedy Jr., an Independent candidate | 2% | 1% |
| Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Registered Voters | Voted/Likely Voter | |
|---|---|---|
| Sample Size | 320 | 320 |
| Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate | 56% | 56% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate | 42% | 42% |
| Robert F Kennedy Jr., an Independent candidate | 0% | 0% |
| Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate | 1% | 1% |
Demographic Shifts
It is rare that both campaigns have a lot of optimism going into election day, with credible arguments bolstering each side’s position.
Democrats are encouraged by an expected increase in female voter turnout, especially among women motivated by issues like reproductive rights. Women now make up 53% of likely voters, up slightly from 51% of registered voters, a boost that could aid Harris, who has focused her messaging on healthcare and women’s rights.
Meanwhile, Republicans are heartened by a significant rise in older, white voters—a demographic that favors Republicans. Voters aged 65 or older now comprise 28% of likely voters, compared to 22% in 2020 and just 16% in 2016. In contrast, younger voters aged 18-24 make up only 8% of likely voters, a drop that may pose a challenge for Harris, as younger demographics typically favor Democratic candidates.
Our polling indicates both are right, but the impact of a whiter and older electorate is more significant than the increases in turnout among female voters. A lower nonwhite turnout is also something to watch.
These potential shifts in turnout would significantly impact the electoral college results if they materialize in areas like Atlanta, Philadelphia, or Detroit.
| 2024 Registered Voters | 2024 Likely Voters | 2020 Exit Poll | 2016 Exit Poll | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a? | ||||
| Democrat | 33% | 35% | 37% | 36% |
| Independent | 35% | 33% | 26% | 31% |
| Republican | 30% | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Something else: | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
Congressional Races Reflect the National Tension
Similar to the Presidential contest, likely U.S. voters favor Democrat candidates 47% to 44%, which mirrors 2020 when Republicans made net gains in the House, an unusual occurrence in a presidential election year.
| Registered Voters | Voted/Likely Voter | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Congressional Ballot (When you vote(d) for a member of Congress, which party will you support?) | ||
| Sample Size | 1,200 | 1,088 |
| Republican Party | 42% | 44% |
| Democrat Party | 45% | 47% |
| All Others | 13% | 9% |
2024 Election Set to Mirror 2016
Democrats are focused on boosting turnout among women, nonwhite voters, and younger voters, while Republicans are leaning into higher turnout among older, white voters. The day before election day echoes the tight dynamics of 2016 more than the decisive victory of 2020, with both parties seeing credible pathways to the White House.
In October, a notable shift in polling momentum toward Trump emerged, though this movement may be a reflection of lower response rates typical of the late election season. During this period, campaigns, super PACs, and polling firms significantly increase their outreach, especially in swing states, which can overwhelm voters and lead to distortions in already paltry response rates. These latest results, more consistent with the stable polling environment of September, may provide a clearer snapshot of the race heading into Election Day.
Get The Data
2024 State Polls
For those interested in state-specific insights, our 2024 polling results for Tennessee are available through the Beacon Center of Tennessee at beaconpoll.com and for Florida through the James Madison Institute at jmipoll.com.
Methodology
The national online poll was conducted October 30-November 1, 2024. The sample was provided by PureSpectrum . The sample of registered voters, n=1,200, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The data was weighted by gender, education, income, race, age, party registration, geography, and behavioral measures. Only respondents who passed our data quality checks were included in the final results and compensated for participating. Sampling was stratified by demographics and geography. Respondents were compensated for their participation.
Due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not always total exactly 100%.