Arizona Poll: Close Races In Arizona
According to our latest polling results in Arizona, incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Kelly leads Blake Masters by 3 points in a very close race.
Kari Lake maintains a 2-point lead against Katie Hobbs in the race for governor.
Based on early voting results, a large number of Republican voters plan to vote on election day instead of their usual pattern of early voting. A larger than expected election day turnout among Republicans could very easily swing the election to Masters in the Senate race.
| U.S. Senate | Registered Voters | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kelly | 46% | 57% | 41% | 50% |
| Blake Masters | 43% | 41% | 53% | 47% |
| Other/Undecided | 11% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Governor | Registered Voters | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kari Lake | 45% | 44% | 55% | 50% |
| Katie Hobbs | 45% | 55% | 41% | 48% |
| Other/Undecided | 9% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
A link to the Likely Voter Crosstabs is posted below.
Data Quality & Additional Findings
In the postmortem of our 2020 polling, we identified a significant number of bot farm and fraudulent panel respondents who answered our 2020 and 2021 polls.
For the poll, we collected 1,227 responses; 418 failed our data quality checks and were eliminated from the results. Roughly 34% of respondents were found to have engaged in some abusive or fraudulent behavior.
We have detailed our findings regarding data quality here and here on the PollSmartMR website. You can also learn more from an op-ed we wrote for The Hill in September this year. Are we facing another big polling miss? Probably | The Hill
Methodology
The PollSmartMR online poll was conducted by Targoz Market Research, an independent research company. We are corporate members of ESOMAR, a global not-for-profit organization that promotes the value of market, opinion and social research, and data analytics. We pledge to abide by the ICC/ESOMAR Code and conform to the highest professional standards.
Interviews were conducted from November 2 - November 6, 2022, among a sample of 809 registered voters. A subsample of 560 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 4.06 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Results were weighted based on party affiliation, geography, demographics (gender, age, education, ethnicity, etc.), and other behavioral measures to ensure results mirror online and offline voters.
More information about the PollSmartMR polls can be obtained by visiting www.pollsmartmr.com or www.targoz.com.
Results are of likely voters unless otherwise noted. Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Similarly, percentages in "total" columns may be one point more or less than the sum of their parts due to rounding.